Bitcoin mining difficulty heads for a 6.5% to 6.8% cut around November 13
Blocks have been arriving slower than the 10-minute target, so difficulty is set to fall, lifting miners' revenue per unit of hashrate by about 7%.
Bitcoin's mining difficulty is projected to fall between 6.5% and 6.8% at its next adjustment, expected around November 13, 2026. CryptoSlate, using Hashrate Index data, projected a 6.5% cut. DC Forecasts, citing mempool.space, estimated about 6.8%.
Difficulty measures how hard it is to find a new block. The network resets it every 2,016 blocks so that blocks keep arriving about every 10 minutes on average. The next reset is due at block 975,744, according to DC Forecasts.
Why it is falling
Blocks in the current period have taken about 10.7 minutes on average, DC Forecasts reported. Slower blocks mean less computing power is working on the network.
The seven-day average hashrate was about 958 exahashes per second (EH/s), per mempool.space data cited by the outlet. The October daily average was about 1,024 EH/s.
Difficulty now sits at about 148.4 trillion after two increases in October. It rose 5.92% on October 16 and 5.54% on October 29, DC Forecasts said. If the projection holds, this would be the largest cut since a 10.1% drop on June 14.
What it means for miner revenue
Hashprice is the expected daily revenue from one petahash per second of computing power. It stood at $31.89 in Hashrate Index's November 9 snapshot, CryptoSlate reported. The outlet modeled a rise to about $34.11 after the cut, assuming price and fees stay flat.
That helps, but older machines still struggle. CryptoSlate calculated that an S19 model rated at 95 TH/s covers its electricity bill only up to 3.88 cents per kilowatt-hour today. After the cut, that ceiling rises to 4.15 cents.
A miner paying 5 cents per kilowatt-hour would still lose money on that machine before counting other costs. The newer S21 covers power costs up to 8.12 cents after the cut, by the same math.
Key numbers
- Current difficulty: about 148.4 trillion
- Projected cut: 6.5% (CryptoSlate) to 6.8% (DC Forecasts)
- Average block time this period: about 10.7 minutes
- Block reward: 3.125 BTC
The final figure depends on how quickly the remaining blocks arrive before the reset.
Difficulty works like bitcoin's built-in thermostat. When miners switch off machines, it drops so new blocks keep coming at a steady pace. A cut eases the squeeze on miners at a time when many are selling coins or moving into AI.
Not financial advice.